Most political attention this year has focused on the presidential showdown between the incumbent, Joe Biden, and his predecessor, Donald Trump. But gubernatorial races are also on tap in 11 states, and a handful of them are looking competitive.

Today, the 50 states have 27 Republican governors and 23 Democratic governors.

In U.S. News’ first gubernatorial handicapping since January, we are moving one of the 11 races – the one in Washington state – to a different rating: from Safe Democratic to Lean Democratic. Two others – open-seat contests in New Hampshire and North Carolina – remain in the most competitive category, Toss-Up.

The remainder are not competitive, though that could change as the campaign goes on. For now, seven races are in the Safe Republican category, while one is rated Safe Democratic. Eight out of the 11 races this year are for open seats.

Here’s a state-by-state rundown of the 11 gubernatorial races in 2024, based on interviews with political observers in the states. The seats are listed in descending order from those most likely to go Republican to those most likely to go Democratic. They are also rated as Safe Republican, Likely Republican, Lean Republican, Toss-Up, Lean Democratic, Likely Democratic and Safe Democratic. We’ll revisit the ratings again before Election Day.

Cox, who has governed as a pragmatist, is enormously popular in Utah, winning 81% of Republicans’ support in an April survey by Noble Predictive Insights. But Cox still must prevail in a June 25 Republican primary against state Rep. Phil Lyman, who defeated Cox by a 2-to-1 margin to win the endorsement of the conservative-activist-dominated state GOP convention on April 27. Cox, who was booed in the convention hall for being insufficiently conservative, told attendees, “Maybe you just hate that I don't hate enough.”

But voters aren’t likely to mirror the endorsement vote – so Cox is the likely victor.

In 2014, Lyman was arrested for leading an all-terrain vehicle protest on federal land. He was convicted and later pardoned by then-President Donald Trump. Lyman won just 6% in the Noble Predictive Insights survey, and if Cox defeats him to win the GOP nomination, the incumbent will be the overwhelming favorite in November in this solidly red state. State Rep. and former House Minority Leader Brian King is the expected Democratic candidate.

Burgum, a wealthy businessman-turned-governor, will be leaving office following an unsuccessful presidential bid and consideration as Trump’s potential running mate. (He could have run for a third term if he had wanted.)

In solidly Republican North Dakota, the action is almost entirely on the Republican side, with U.S. Rep. Kelly Armstrong facing off against Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller in the June 11 primary.

Burgum appointed Miller, a former CEO of the Fargo-based electric company Border States, as lieutenant governor in 2023. Armstrong was elected to the House in 2018. Policywise, both Republicans have expressed support for laws targeting abortion and LGBTQ rights; Armstrong won the state party endorsement at its convention, which Miller did not seek.

Polling shows Armstrong, who's better known for having served the state in Congress, is substantially ahead in the primary.

State Sen. Merrill Piepkorn, the Democratic nominee, is a credible candidate and is known for his folksy demeanor and upbeat approach to politics. But the North Dakota Democratic Party is floundering, having not won a statewide election since 2012 and a race for governor since 1988. Regardless of who wins the GOP primary, Piepkorn will be a distinct underdog in........

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