Since his dreadful performance in a June 27 debate with Donald Trump, President Joe Biden has been the object of intense scrutiny from every part of the U.S. political sphere. Whereas Biden’s renomination to lead the Democratic ticket in the November 2024 elections seemed a fait accompli for much of his presidency, the last two weeks have turned that assumption on its head. And, after Thursday night’s much-hyped press conference — at which he repeatedly mixed up the names of politicians he was referring to — the future of his candidacy is as uncertain as ever.

Whether Biden will step aside or not is ultimately his decision, alone. He secured the vast majority of delegates to the national convention in the Democratic primaries and no other person, per party rules, can take his place at the top of the ticket without him first releasing those delegates. Even if the majority of party members called for Biden to step aside, he would still have to do so of his own volition. With Biden apparently defiant and determined to stay in the race, the responsibility for changing the electoral course of the next four months has now devolved to groups of actors who still have some influence on Biden.

Outside of Biden’s family members, who are reportedly holding a huge amount of sway in Biden’s decision to stay in the race, the remaining influence on Biden resides with a few different groups.

First are the media, which have kept the question of whether Biden will step down in their headlines for the two weeks since the initial explosion of concern after his debate with Trump. Beyond merely following the horse race, some outlets have even taken the unusual step of seeking to influence Biden himself — The New York Times recently published an editorial calling for him to exit the race. Whether this will have any effect on Biden, who told MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” hosts that he “[doesn’t] care what big names think,” is doubtful.

Next, donors have reportedly been exerting a significant amount of pressure on Biden behind the scenes, though not many have publicly called for him to step aside. A notable exception came earlier this week when actor George Clooney, a longtime Democratic megadonor and organizer of Hollywood fundraisers, published an opinion piece in The New York Times entitled, “I Love Joe Biden. But We Need a New Nominee.” While anxiety from big donors is surely causing alarm behind closed doors at the Democratic National Committee headquarters, more public statements from this group are also unlikely to move Biden and his team. Conversely, pressure from big donors may actually aid him in feeding into his narrative that “elites” are turned against his brand of middle-class friendly, kitchen table politics.

Beyond these two groups, though, there is another force that has more power to overtly signal, without Biden’s........

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