Federal projections show emissions rising as production plans accelerate, leaving the Alberta government facing a decision it can no longer avoid

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New federal emissions projections show Alberta’s oil sands are on track to hit or exceed the province’s legislated 100-megatonne emissions cap within the next decade, forcing the Alberta government to choose between enforcing the cap or following through on its plan to sharply expand oil production.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) recently released greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions projections through 2035 showing absolute oil sands emissions rising from 89 megatonnes (Mt) in 2023 to 95 Mt in 2035 under policies already in place, and from 89 Mt to 92 Mt over the same period if governments implement additional measures they have already announced.

These projections bring oil sands emissions closer to Alberta’s legislated limit of 100 Mt. The limit was set in Alberta law in 2016 as a hard cap on annual oil sands emissions and could prompt the Smith government to raise or repeal it.

Those emissions projections are driven by ECCC estimates of oil sands production, excluding upgrading, of 4.325 million barrels a day in 2035 under current policies and 4.342 million barrels a day with additional announced measures.

A hard choice is looming for Alberta’s oil sands.
Photo courtesy Imperial Oil

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