Before the results come in tonight, I want to explain why I’ve resisted the predictions of a blue wave, much less a blue tsunami.

My prediction: Republicans hold the Senate. Democrats likely take the House, but their best outcome is a single-digit advantage over Republicans.

I’m a conservative. I’d prefer Republicans keep both chambers. If I were trying to peddle false hope to people who want to believe Republicans will win, predicting a Democratic House would be a strange way to do it.

My audience deserves my honest assessment. That includes conclusions they might not enjoy hearing. I’ve reached this one by putting considerable weight on the electoral map, historical voting patterns and the individual races Democrats actually have to win.

Start with the House. A national polling advantage doesn’t distribute itself evenly across 435 congressional districts. Democrats can increase their margins in overwhelmingly Democratic districts without electing one additional member. Where their voters live matters. District boundaries and redistricting affect how many seats they can realistically capture.

When I look at that map, I see a path to a Democrat majority. I’m considerably less persuaded by the path to a landslide.

The Senate requires its own analysis. Some of the Democratic breakthroughs being forecast would require substantial shifts in states with established Republican voting patterns.

I want convincing evidence of what has changed in those states. Who is switching sides? Which voters are staying home? What turnout assumptions produce the projected result? The larger the departure from recent........

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