Poll analysts will caution that “we need more data” when debating whether freshly released numbers herald genuine trends or whether we are simply reacting to statistical noise. Don’t get me wrong: overreacting to blips is a wonderful (and lucrative) click generator in this dopamine-craving age of social media. But it rarely provides analysis that genuinely informs voters.

This is why it helps, from time to time, to look back at where we were and where we are—to test whether earlier interpretations still hold. Back in August, shortly after Pierre Poilievre was duly elected member of Parliament for Battle River—Crowfoot, I wrote for The Walrus: “Every move this fall—in the Commons, in public messaging, even on social media—will be scrutinized as if part of an updated résumé to be submitted [at the national convention] in Calgary.” This convention, happening in January, is where delegates will vote on whether Poilievre remains leader.

For its end-of-year federal survey, Leger measured not only views on Prime Minister Mark Carney and his government but also public impressions of the Conservative leader—including whether he should continue to lead his party. Let’s explore these numbers. First Carney, then the man who hopes to replace him.

The Carney government ends 2025 in a position best described as fragile yet stable. Nationally, 51 percent of Canadians approve of the job Carney is doing as prime minister, compared with 38 percent who disapprove—a respectable 13 net approval for any government in its fourth term.

Regionally, Carney posts robust approval in Ontario (net 22), Atlantic Canada ( 27), Quebec ( 10), and even the Prairies ( 15). The Prairie numbers may be a touch anomalous (current polling averages don’t show the Liberals doing that well in the region, for instance), but the other regions form the backbone of the 2025 Liberal........

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