As has been the case for much of the war, the outcome of the conflict in Iran hangs on US President Donald Trump’s decision on how much longer he wants to keep fighting.

Anyone familiar with Trump’s style knows that getting a read on his thinking is a notoriously difficult task. He often contradicts himself, intentionally speaks in ways that invite multiple interpretations, and likes to leave his options open.

There have been reports throughout the war that Trump is eager to end the fighting, especially as energy prices rise and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that the president told aides he is willing to end the military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t opened.

The White House has come to the conclusion, according to the report, that a mission to reopen the waterway would extend the length of the war past Trump’s four- to six-week timeline.

At the same time, Trump has ordered thousands of troops to the region over the past week in what has been described as preparation for a potential ground operation, though the buildup could also be aimed at pressuring Iran into accepting Washington’s ceasefire terms.

The leaks about Trump wanting to pull the US out of the military campaign could themselves be part of an elaborate ruse meant to lull Tehran into letting its guard down before the launch of a ground push.

At the same time, the unpopularity of the war at home and its impact on the economy give the president serious reasons to want out.

Whether Israel’s government wants to keep fighting or is also interested in ending the war under certain conditions, there’s no guarantee that it would be able to change Trump’s mind once the president himself has made it up.

But it does have the ability to alter its operations to maximize the time remaining, plan for the future, and do whatever it can to make sure Iran’s ability to threaten it in the coming years is as limited as possible.

The ‘completion phase’

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains vague about when Israel might be willing to end its military campaign or what conditions it would want to see met.

“It’s definitely beyond the halfway point,” he said in an interview on Monday. “But I don’t want to put a schedule on it.”

Even if Netanyahu cannot pencil in a firm end date for the war, Israel should still have a clear end state in mind, and a military plan for getting there — even if that plan must remain flexible and adaptive in order to react to a rapidly changing situation.

What Israel’s desired end state might be continues to be a question, more than a........

© The Times of Israel