The conflict between the United States and Iran is entering a new phase in which military operations are increasingly focused on weakening the Islamic Republic’s ability to govern rather than simply destroying its armed forces. By targeting infrastructure, logistics, and energy networks, Washington appears intent on imposing long-term strategic costs while undermining Tehran’s economic resilience. Yet military pressure alone is unlikely to determine the regime’s fate. The article argues that Iran’s future will depend on whether economic decline, political fragmentation, and domestic unrest converge to erode the state’s governing capacity. Rather than an imminent collapse, the more probable outcome is a prolonged contest of attrition in which political legitimacy, institutional cohesion, and economic endurance become the decisive measures of success.

The military confrontation between the United States and Iran appears to be entering a qualitatively different phase. What initially resembled a campaign focused on degrading military capabilities increasingly bears the hallmarks of a broader strategy aimed at weakening the Islamic Republic’s capacity to govern. The emphasis is shifting from destroying weapons systems to undermining the infrastructure, logistics, and economic foundations that sustain state power.

If reports accurately reflect operational priorities, Washington has expanded its objectives beyond conventional battlefield gains. Critical infrastructure—including ports, transportation networks, power generation facilities, and energy distribution systems—has become an increasingly prominent target set. Such assets are indispensable not only for military operations but also for maintaining economic activity and public administration.

From a strategic perspective, this evolution suggests that U.S. planners have........

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