When President Trump meets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the sixth time this year on December 29, the two leaders should ask themselves a question they thought was already settled: Who won the Hamas-Israel war? 

When he visited Jerusalem in October, Trump proclaimed Israel the victor: “You’ve won,” he told Israel’s parliament. But Hamas leaders called the war a failure for Israel and a “victory for resistance and steadfastness.” And three months into the ceasefire, the answer is not so simple. While the Palestinian people in Gaza suffered horrific losses, Hamas itself did not lose – at least, not yet. 

This much is clear: Of Israel’s five war aims, outlined by Netanyahu when he stood next to Trump at the White House on September 29, only two have been achieved — the near-miraculous return of Israel’s surviving hostages and the establishment of an extensive IDF buffer zone inside Gaza to prevent another October 7-style attack. Israel secured none of the other three war aims, and none is on the horizon: the disarmament of Hamas, the demilitarization of Gaza, and the establishment of a peaceful, Palestinian-led civilian administration to govern all of Gaza. 

So the most likely near-term scenario for Gaza is that tomorrow will look very much like today: the continuation of an ad hoc situation in which Israeli troops hold just........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)