Following the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan on August 30, 2021, many observers may have embraced the false assumption that the US military had become a paper tiger. Mao Zedong popularized the idea of the “Paper Tiger.” This is a Chinese idiom for someone or something that appears powerful but is actually weak, ineffectual, and unable to withstand challenges.

On Jan 3, 2026, the US military engaged in a military operation against Venezuela. In one period of darkness, the US military was able to exfiltrate the head of a hostile nation from the inside of a fortified facility, destroy the radar systems, and neutralize all hostile forces. Not a single US service member was killed during the operation. Before the Venezuela raid, some believed the US military lacked the capability to carry it out.

Extraordinarily, a Chinese delegation led by Special Envoy for Latin American and Caribbean Affairs,  Qiu Xiaoqi, met with President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas just hours before US forces captured him.  If China knew of the US attack in advance, it seems highly likely they would have warned Maduro, an ally of the Chinese. It appears the Chinese did not know, or simply did not believe, the US was capable of such an action. Whether it was a failure of intelligence or a failure of imagination, China failed.

Chinese military strategy, and in particular, China’s interest in Taiwan, remains front of mind for US defense planning.  US Admiral Phil Davidson warned in 2021 that China could develop the military capability to seize Taiwan by 2027. Known as the “Davidson Window”, this 2021–2027 timeframe has influenced the US Pacific Deterrence Initiative.

The US raid on Venezuela was instructive about the actual Chinese readiness. Venezuela used Chinese-supplied defense technology, including anti-stealth radar and surface-to-air missiles.  These systems failed to detect or intercept US aircraft. Reports indicate these systems were bypassed, jammed, or inoperative due to poor maintenance, leaving Venezuelan airspace undefended. After the US raid on Venezuela, one must ask if China is the actual Paper Tiger.

On February 28, 2026, the US launched Operation Epic Fury, a joint operation with Israel, against Iran. Since seizing power in 1979, the Iranian regime has waged a 47-year campaign against the US, including the killing of US citizens. A major goal is the dismantling of the leadership of the Iranian regime, including the IRGC. Though some US and Israeli military losses will be inevitable, strategically, Israel and the US have been devastatingly effective in killing every Iranian leader they can find. From the US perspective, Operation Epic Fury has reaffirmed US military operational full-spectrum capabilities.

The war against Iran is clearly hurting Chinese interests. China is a strategic benefactor of Iran and purchases roughly 80-90% of what Iranian oil exports. Iranian oil represents about 13% of China’s total imports. Before the war against Iran, China was able to get Iranian oil in exchange for Chinese investments and at a discounted price. This arrangement had also enabled China to evade U.S. sanctions. China has also been in talks with Iran to secure safe passage for its oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategy more fitting for a supplicant rather than a benefactor.

US strategy against Iran warrants caution. The US erred in Iraq when it dismantled the Ba’ath Party of Saddam in 2003. The civil service vacuum led directly to Iraqi instability and the rise of fundamentalist insurgency. The Iraq of today is a barely functioning and shaky democracy and remains a deeply problematic ally to the West. In the current campaign against Iran, the US will be wise to avoid the Iraqi mistake.

Sun Tzu refers to the strategy of the “Golden Bridge.” If an enemy is backed into a corner, the result may be a very high casualty rate due to desperate resistance. The Golden Bridge is an escape route intentionally left open. Disorganized retreat allows the enemy to be more easily destroyed. In the current conflict, there is a real danger if no golden bridge is possible.

Regime change in Iran is not simple. Iran is seen as a near peer to the US and Israel with respect to its technology, expertise, and commitment. From the US perspective, Iran is in the grips of religious ideology, which makes it a fiercer enemy than Venezuela. While the removal of Maduro allowed for the rapid formation of a new government led by Delcy Rodriguez, the results have been a leadership change, not a regime change. The Rodriguez government has at least sought to re-establish diplomatic relations with the US.

For the Iranian regime to change, it needs a domestic force capable of stepping in to run the enormous bureaucracy while being more open to partnering with the US and the international community. Any new Iranian government must have a degree of legitimacy while successfully maintaining and controlling the monopoly of violence.

Since the start of Operation Epic Fury, the US has engaged in every aspect of conventional weapon over-the-horizon fighting – military engagements where targets are engaged at distances beyond the direct line of sight. This expertise includes the capacity to intercept missiles from a peer enemy. Operation Epic Fury has also been an opportunity for the US to directly engage with Russian and Chinese military technology.

Controlling the airspace does not mean US and Israeli planes cannot still be downed, as testified by recent events. Iran can use direct-fire weapons or MANPADS (Man-Portable Air-Defense Systems). These are shoulder-fired surface-to-air guided missile weapons designed to be carried and operated by one or two people. They target low-flying aircraft, particularly helicopters and planes, using infrared or laser guidance to destroy targets up to 15,000 feet in altitude and up to a 3-6-mile linear range.

It is lamentable that, in our time, diplomacy has proven ineffective in preventing war and in creating a world where all people can enjoy safety and freedom. The US war against Iran has certainly caught China’s attention. Recently, Trump warned Iran by saying, “We are going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. We’re going to bring them back to the Stone Age where they belong.” The use of military force to open the Straight of Hormuz appears imminent. The message on US foreign policy is clear – if a foreign nation says, “death to America,” the US is going to take that very seriously. In the ongoing US military action against Iran, China now finds itself living in interesting times.

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)