On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel opened Operation Epic Fury against Iran. Weeks earlier, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, had warned President Trump in several briefings that Tehran could answer an attack by closing the Strait of Hormuz with mines, drones, and missiles.

Trump acknowledged the risk and moved forward, telling his advisers that Iran would capitulate before it came to that, and that the Navy could reopen the waterway if needed. Iran closed the strait within hours. The reopening is still being negotiated four months later.

The vulnerability was not new, and the military had seen it. In 2002, the United States ran Millennium Challenge, the most expensive war game in its history, at a cost of 250 million dollars. A Red force standing in for a Persian Gulf adversary, led by retired Marine general Paul Van Riper, used swarms of small boats and a surprise salvo of cruise missiles to sink sixteen warships, among them an aircraft carrier.

In a real engagement, the dead would have numbered around twenty thousand. The umpires then halted the exercise, refloated the fleet, restricted the Red commander, and scripted the rest to deliver an American victory. Van Riper resigned and called the result rigged.

The lesson was plain and it was set aside. A weaker Gulf power could cripple a superior navy with small boats and mines. Twenty-four years later, General Caine carried the same warning into the Oval Office, and it was set aside again. Iran did not sink the fleet. It closed the strait, which cost it far less and reached far wider. The next several US presidents will inherit this problem.

About 20 million barrels of oil cross Hormuz each day, close to a fifth of world consumption. The channel is narrow, and the weapons that threaten it cost little and are quickly replaced. Mines, fast boats, and anti-ship missiles do not require a modern navy. What makes them effective is the narrowness of the strait, which will never change. Iran does not need to fire them.

A credible threat against the strait is a form of coercion, psychological warfare against global shipping and financial markets, and a direct strike on the world’s energy supply, delivered without a........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)