Authoritarian systems rarely collapse in the dramatic fashion imagined by outsiders. More often, they decay internally long before they visibly weaken. The language of power changes first. Confidence disappears from official rhetoric. Loyalty becomes procedural rather than emotional. The state continues to function, but fewer people inside the system genuinely believe in its future. That appears to be the stage Russia is entering under President Vladimir Putin.

For more than two decades, Mr Putin’s legitimacy rested on a simple proposition: stability in exchange for political passivity. After the economic chaos of the 1990s, many Russians accepted restrictions on democratic freedoms because the state delivered rising incomes, national pride, and predictability. The Kremlin presented itself as the guarantor of order against disorder at home and humiliation abroad. The war in Ukraine has altered that equation fundamentally. What was initially framed as a demonstration of Russian strength has gradually become an open-ended national burden.

The conflict has militarised the economy, tightened censorship, deepened dependence on security structures and isolated Russia from much of the Western financial and technological system. Even........

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