The most dangerous word in the latest attempt to end the Gaza war may be “first”. Israel wants Hamas to disarm before Israeli forces withdraw. Hamas, meanwhile, has tied its willingness to surrender its weapons to an Israeli withdrawal and an end to military action. Both positions have an internal logic.

Together, they create a deadlock that could consume the latest diplomatic initiative before it has properly begun. The problem is not merely that Israel and Hamas disagree. It is that each side regards the other’s concession as a potential security catastrophe. For Israel, withdrawing while Hamas retains its military capability could recreate the conditions that led to the October 2023 attack. For Hamas, disarming while Israeli troops remain in Gaza could amount to surrendering its only meaningful leverage while leaving the territory under military pressure. That makes the sequencing question impossible to resolve through political declarations alone. Someone has to move first, and neither side believes it can safely do so. This is where the American role becomes crucial.

Washington has considerable influence over Israel, but influence is not the same as control. The........

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