The United States and South Korea have ample reasons to worry about the new agreement between Russia and North Korea. The agreement involves a mutual defense commitment between Russia and North Korea as well as military-technical cooperation. However, details matter, and the details of that agreement and ongoing Russian assistance are not known. And the agreement is almost certainly not a basis for a new Russia-China-North Korea alliance, given the very differing objectives of these three countries.

The Russian commitment to military-technical assistance is of particular concern. Russia could provide many kinds of assistance to North Korea that would potentially place the South and even the United States at great risk. Of particular concern would be Russian help with the North Korean nuclear weapon program, which could allow the North to build more powerful weapons of mass destruction. But Russia could also assist North Korea in developing ballistic missiles, satellites, satellite launchers, air defense systems, and other weapons.

What is not clear is how much of a difference this agreement will make. After all, over the years, the Soviet Union and then Russia have provided a lot of military-related help to North Korea. The Soviet Union trained North Korean nuclear scientists and supervised the construction of the first North Korean nuclear reactor. Russia has apparently assisted North Korea with its ballistic missile program, with GPS jammers, with maraging steel and aluminum needed for uranium centrifuges, with the KN-23 theater missile (which strongly resembles the Russian Iskander missile), with enhanced guidance and performance of the 240 mm multiple rocket launcher rockets, with........

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