Some in the United States worry that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un could carry out an October surprise by doing a nuclear weapon test just before the U.S. presidential election this year. Could Kim do that? We don't know, but he certainly has a number of reasons for doing so.

North Korea's last nuclear weapon test was in September 2017. Many have wondered why he has gone almost seven years without another such test. Undoubtedly China’s open opposition to North Korean nuclear weapon tests plays a major role in the North’s decision. The North knows that it must use nuclear weapon tests very sparingly or risk China’s wrath. Indeed, China has recently offended the North by agreeing with South Korea and Japan to seek North Korean denuclearization.

It is curious that when Kim introduced his “tactical nuclear weapon” design in March last year, he did not do a nuclear weapon test to confirm that design. But maybe those weapons were purely mock-ups, or maybe they........

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