The Kremlin's recently announced budget parameters for 2025 dash any hopes that Russian spending on the war with Ukraine had already peaked. Contrary to expectations – and even previous forecasts by the Russian authorities – military spending is now planned to increase by 22.6% compared to this year and by as much as 54.5% compared to the original draft budget for 2025, which was drawn up at the end of 2023.

In short, President Vladimir Putin is not going to give up his ambitions in Ukraine and is ready to further increase spending on war, without which, as he believes, his regime cannot survive.

Earlier budget plans for 2024-2026 envisaged a gradual reduction in military spending. This led many to conclude that Putin intended to end the war as early as 2024. Kyiv and its Western allies had hoped to prevent the Kremlin from significantly expanding its gains by imposing exorbitant spending. But these calculations have not materialized due to external and internal challenges. Delays in Ukraine's mobilization and the delivery of Western aid have resulted in setbacks on the frontlines, while the Russian leadership has managed to mobilize additional resources to increase defense spending in 2025.

Russia's budget revenues in 2025 should grow to 40 trillion rubles ($418.114 billion) compared to 35 trillion ($366.027 billion) in 2024, while expenditures should rise from 37.2 trillion ($388.992 billion) to 41.5 trillion ($434.009 billion).

The government expects to keep the........

© The Moscow Times