South Korea is undergoing a serious polycrisis. While domestic politics is embroiled in an uncertain process of presidential impeachment, military tensions with North Korea have heightened to an unprecedented degree. To make matters worse, the advent of Trump 2.0 signals bad omens for South Korea’s national security and economy. Trump-phobia is widespread in South Korea.

It is feared that Trump 2.0 might disrupt or weaken the South Korea-U.S. alliance by demanding too much for defense cost-sharing and even threatening the reduction or withdrawal of American forces in South Korea. Trump has already expressed his displeasure with a recent settlement of the Special Measures Agreement on defense cost-sharing for American forces in South Korea in which Seoul agreed to pay $1.1 billion yearly. He argued that being a money machine, Seoul can pay at least $10 billion, a ninefold increase. After taking office on Jan. 20, he may try to renegotiate the terms of cost-sharing by using such bargaining chips as the suspension of joint military exercises and training and the deployment of American strategic weapons. He may also deliberate on changing the overall mission of American forces in South Korea. South Koreans are extremely worried about such possibilities.

Divergent threat perceptions toward China will be another source of contention. Trump 2.0 is likely to intensify U.S. hard-line policy on China, and the mission of American forces in South Korea might be restructured to focus on deterring China rather than North Korea. For South Korea, however, deterrence........

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