2019 is not so long ago by most historical standards, yet it must seem a different political epoch for China’s President Xi Jinping who has just concluded his first visit to Europe in five years.
That half-decade has witnessed not just the trauma of the coronavirus pandemic whose presumed origins in China remain shrouded in some mystery, but also Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which is tacitly supported by Beijing. Collectively, this means that much of Europe is in a different political space toward China than in 2019.
Aware of the change in mood in Europe, Xi chose his three-leg itinerary carefully. After his trip to France (which he calls a model bilateral relationship) last Monday and Tuesday, he visited Hungary and non-EU nation Serbia, two of China’s supporters in the continent.
Xi has described Serbia as an “iron-clad” friend, and has seen growing bilateral trade and investment ties. This includes a $2 billion investment in wind and solar power plants and a hydrogen production facility.
Within the 27-member EU itself, however, Xi’s strongest ally may be longstanding Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. He favors deeper ties with not only China, but also Russia too, which makes him very unusual among the current cohort of 27 presidents and prime ministers.
In Hungary too, Xi welcomed the fact that the nation has become a key production hub in Europe for Chinese automotive suppliers, including electric vehicle (EV) makers. This may help Chinese EV firms navigate any EU tariffs in the future.
So these two states are outliers in the course of contemporary continental opinion on Beijing. More reflective of the stance, as of 2024, is the position of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who Xi met on Monday in France. She has led the political charge in Brussels toward what she calls “de-risking” from Beijing.
To be sure, even in France, the Chinese president received a respectful, warm welcome on the 60th anniversary of France-China diplomatic relations, where he met President Emmanuel Macron and von der Leyen. But the underlying political mood music is different from 2019.
Back then, Xi was love-bombed by his then-Italian hosts who became the first G7 leaders to sign up to Beijing’s Belt and Road infrastructure scheme. This was a controversial decision within the West even then, infuriating the then-Trump administration which called it “legitimacy for China’s infrastructure vanity project,” and was last year reversed by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s administration currently in power in Rome.
This reflects the undeniable chill in EU-China relations in recent years that reflect wide-ranging political and economic factors. These include Western assertions of Chinese human rights abuses in Xinjiang province, and concerns that China is "dumping" key products like EVs, batteries, wind turbines and solar panels in the European market with use of extensive state subsidies.
Worse still, top EU officials have also become increasingly concerned in recent years about whether the nature of China’s external interventions in Europe represent a divide-and-rule strategy to undermine the continent’s collective interests. EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell even asserted that Beijing is a “systemic rival that seeks to promote an alternative model of governance” to that of Europe.
So the direction of travel for EU policy on China is clearly in a more hawkish direction. Even on issues where breakthroughs have been made with Beijing in recent years, such as the bilateral Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, the "long grass"of Brussels has prevented ratification in the European Parliament owing to EU concerns over China’s behavior.
Yet, despite these greater attempts at more unity, Brussels is struggling to find common ground on Beijing across all 27 member states. It is this that shaped Xi’s travel itinerary, including the choice of France as his first stopoff.
While Macron has become increasingly hawkish toward Russia since it began its invasion of Ukraine, China has welcomed a string of his wider, recent comments. During a joint visit last year to Beijing with von der Leyen, Macron even moved away from prior positions on Taiwan. So whereas von der Leyen asserted on the trip that “stability in the Taiwan Strait is of paramount importance” and that “threat of use of force to change the status quo is unacceptable,” Macron said Taiwan is a “crisis that is not ours” and that Europeans should not be “America’s followers.”
The Franco-China discussions were therefore closely watched not just in Europe, but also the United States too, around a month before President Joe Biden is expected to pay his own state visit to Paris.
Perceptions of a divided Europe have also been publicly highlighted by several Chinese officials, including EU Ambassador Fu Cong, who has cast doubts whether all 27 member states are behind the agenda of Borrell and von der Leyen. Cong recently said that “Europe has not formulated a coherent policy toward China” and that it felt like “people quarrelling with each other."
Taken together, Xi hopes his visit will mark an important reset moment in ties, post-pandemic. However, while the visits to France, Serbia and Hungary were very cordial, there is no disguising that broader Europe-China ties are chilled and could yet go from bad to worse in 2024.
Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
Xi's half-decade hiatus from Europe sees shift in ties
90
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14.05.2024
2019 is not so long ago by most historical standards, yet it must seem a different political epoch for China’s President Xi Jinping who has just concluded his first visit to Europe in five years.
That half-decade has witnessed not just the trauma of the coronavirus pandemic whose presumed origins in China remain shrouded in some mystery, but also Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which is tacitly supported by Beijing. Collectively, this means that much of Europe is in a different political space toward China than in 2019.
Aware of the change in mood in Europe, Xi chose his three-leg itinerary carefully. After his trip to France (which he calls a model bilateral relationship) last Monday and Tuesday, he visited Hungary and non-EU nation Serbia, two of China’s supporters in the continent.
Xi has described Serbia as an “iron-clad” friend, and has seen growing bilateral trade and investment ties. This includes a $2 billion investment in wind and solar power plants and a hydrogen production facility.
Within the 27-member EU itself, however, Xi’s strongest ally may be longstanding Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. He favors deeper ties with not only China, but also Russia too, which makes him very unusual among the current cohort of 27 presidents and prime ministers.
In Hungary too, Xi welcomed the fact that the nation has become a key........
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