Ahead of next week’s presidential debate, pundits are clenching bare knuckles around polls, including the release of the FiveThirtyEight forecast, showing Biden and Trump in a functional tie.

Ignore it all. If you want to know the actual trajectory of the 2024 presidential, Senate and House races, all you need to do is monitor the state of play in two congressional districts: Pennsylvania's eighth and Nebraska's second.

In Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District, Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) will try to stave off Republican challenger Rob Bresnahan. Cartwright is a moderate Democrat running in a rematch against a rich, election-denying businessman in a heartland district that includes President Biden’s own birthplace of Scranton. Biden has framed the entire election around this contrast of “Scranton values or Mar-a-Lago values.”

As Cartwright’s fortunes go, so will Biden’s in Pennsylvania. And without the Keystone State, Biden’s path to reelection would require a miracle.

Cartwright faces an uphill climb in a district that leans Republican by 4 points, according to Cook Political Report. In 2016, Hillary Clinton........

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