Election Day is a month away, and the polls show a breathtakingly close race.

Vice President Harris has a small lead nationwide. She led former President Trump by 3.4 points in the average maintained by The Hill/Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) as of Friday evening.

But the picture in the battleground states is tighter still.

Of the seven battlegrounds likely to decide the election, Harris leads in four states and Trump in three. But neither candidate is ahead in any of those critical states by more than 2 percentage points. In five of the states, the margin for the leading candidate is less than 1 point.

The campaigns will now be furiously battling it out on the campaign trail and in TV ads to try to drive turnout among their supporters and win over late-deciding voters.

The Trump campaign and its affiliated committees have said they began October with $283 million cash on hand. The Harris campaign has yet to release its fundraising numbers for September.

Bloomberg, citing data from AdImpact, has reported that Team Harris spent $192 million on advertising to Trump’s $72 million during September.

Here is where things stand in the battlegrounds.

Arizona

Trump has a tiny lead here, up by eight-tenths of a percentage point in The Hill/DDHQ average.

Arizona is the only battleground state that abuts the border, making immigration — one of Trump’s strongest issues — especially salient.

A CNN/SSRS poll late last month found Trump had a 16-point lead nationwide, 50 percent to 34 percent, when registered voters were asked which candidate they trusted more on immigration.

An Emerson College poll released this week gave Trump a 4-point lead in the Grand Canyon State among likely voters, though another survey from HighGround put Harris up by 2 points.

Arizona was one of the closest states in 2020. President Biden won by........

© The Hill