House Republicans are charging into Election Day with high hopes of padding their majority in the next Congress.

The fight to control the lower chamber remains too close to call in the final sprint to Nov. 5 — and campaign operatives in both parties acknowledge the 11th-hour uncertainty.

Republicans got a small boost from state redistricting, which is expected to net them one additional House seat next year. And they’re also encouraged by a map where five of the most vulnerable incumbent Democrats represent districts carried by former President Trump in 2020. Trump lost that contest, but with him back at the top of the ballot — and making gains among Black, Hispanic and male voters — Republicans feel confident they’ll have better luck seizing those seats this time around.

The extra cushion would be a welcome development for GOP leaders who have struggled, with a razor thin majority, to unite the warring factions of their conference in order to pass even the most basic legislation.

Here are seven Democratic districts where Republicans think they have the best shot at gaining ground on Nov. 5.

Ohio’s 9th District: Marcy Kaptur

Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), in her 42nd year in the House, is an institution on Capitol Hill and the longest-serving woman in congressional history. Republicans see a unique opportunity to end that streak this year.

Not only did Trump carry the district by 2.9 points in 2020, but GOP legislatures made the district slightly more red in the redistricting process that was approved last year. On top of that, Trump’s running mate this time around is JD Vance, Ohio’s junior senator.

That combination, according to GOP strategists, should lend a boost to Kaptur’s challenger, Ohio state Rep. Derek Merrin, 38, who is running on a message focused heavily on the economy under President Biden.

“It is a toss-up race; it is neck-and-neck. And Trump — he's obviously going to help us there. It's a Trump district, and he's probably going to win it by a larger margin [this year],” a House GOP strategist said. “Vance being on the ticket helps us, as well.”

They have an uphill climb.

Election forecasters at both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball say the race “leans” in Kaptur’s favor.

Kaptur has outpaced Merrin in fundraising, bringing in $1.3 million in the third quarter of 2024 to $610,336 for Merrin. And Kaptur entered October with a much larger war chest of $1.7 million to just $430,937 for Merrin.

Outside PAC spending in the race, though, has favored Merrin. According to OpenSecrets, $7.2 million has been spent either to support Merrin or oppose Kaptur, compared to $6.2 million supporting Kaptur or opposing Merrin. That includes $3.9 million in spending from the Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with House GOP leadership. Elon Musk’s America PAC is also spending in the race.

Pennsylvania’s 8th District: Matt Cartwright

When Vice President Harris replaced Biden at the top of the ticket in July, it gave a boost to down-ballot Democrats in a vast majority of districts around the country. Pennsylvania’s 8th might be one of the exceptions.

The region includes Scranton, Biden’s hometown, and Republicans are hoping the shift to Harris will be a drag on Rep. Matt Cartwright, the six-term........

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