Last month’s G-20 in Brazil showcased Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s dilemma — how to curate Mexico’s balancing act between the U.S. and China while avoiding a spat with the incoming Trump administration.

In January 2025, Sheinbaum will face a wake-up call as President-elect Donald Trump returns to Washington looking to pick up where his administration last left the relationship with Mexico. Much like then, the twin issues of migration and trade will be top of mind as Sheinbaum contends with a spike in migration, a tepid investor climate, and China looming large.

Mexico under Sheinbaum presents a wealth of opportunities. In fact, by the end of Trump’s first term, Mexico had contained migration, albeit reluctantly; inked the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which strategically modernized our bilateral trade relationship to align interests with the U.S. and abated China; and pushed for reshoring to sever our over-reliance on China in the supply chain.

All this was done under the prerogative of securing U.S. national interests. Four years later, a different picture has emerged in Mexico — one that is raising alarm bells here at home and even in Canada.

To be fair, Sheinbaum has inherited a complex dynamic in Mexico. Concerns over energy sector regulations have spooked investors and recent........

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