As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine approaches its second anniversary, nearly one-fourth of Ukraine’s population remains displaced. Thousands of Ukrainians have been killed, and several cities and villages destroyed. Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of Russians have died, and the Russian Federation has lost tens of billions of dollars in defense equipment.

Despite the devastation caused by the war, Russia shows no signs of ending its military incursion. Instead, Ukraine and Russia will be preparing for an extended war into 2024.

Some international experts now believe that the war is heading toward a stalemate. Some of them argue that Ukraine’s counteroffensive failed due to inadequate training. Others claim that the Ukrainians had “no chance” of defeating Russia’s forces in southern and eastern Ukraine. Some even believe that Ukraine is “bound to lose the war.” Finally, they have argued that because Ukraine failed to reclaim significant territory, its leaders must accept a ceasefire, believing that will stop the fighting and prevent the additional loss of life.

These takes are all misguided.

First, Ukraine made several gains in 2023. According to a New York Times report, Ukraine reclaimed more than half of the land Russia had captured since the start of the war in February 2022. The Ukrainians liberated villages and towns in the south and east in quick succession.

Ukraine also had other successes. For example, the Ukrainians disrupted Russia’s operations around the Crimean peninsula. They damaged Russian radars, air defense and ships on the Black Sea. This allowed the Ukrainians to expand grain shipments. Finally, the Ukrainians broke through Russian defenses on the Dnipro River, where Ukrainian forces advanced farther in Kherson. In other words, while the counteroffensive may not be moving as quickly as some had anticipated, the Ukrainians have made........

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