With the Russian invasion of Ukraine in its third year, the war does not have an apparent end. Instead, Russia is continuing its full-scale military incursion. The Russian Federation destroyed several Ukrainian cities and villages, and its war has killed thousands of Ukrainians. The Russians have had hundreds of thousands of casualties as well, but these losses do not appear to have phased the Russian government. Instead, the Russians are fully committed to their war.
Given this death and destruction, some members of the international community have called for peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Some argue that a ceasefire would save lives. Others believe the war cannot be won.
These takes, however, are misguided. Recent statements by Russian senior officials show that Russia has no intention of ending its invasion. For example, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, now the Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council, said that there will not be peace talks until Ukraine entirely cedes to Russia. Similarly, Russian President Vladimir Putin proclaimed that his country “will do everything to finish” the war.
These statements do not give the impression that Russia wants negotiate peace. Rather, they suggest that the Russian Federation is committed to destroying Ukraine completely.
The international community has pursued two major areas to counter Russia’s action. One avenue has been supplying Ukraine with weapons it needs to win the war. Western technology and equipment helped the Ukrainians force the Russians out of central and northern Ukraine in 2022. They contributed to Ukraine’s destruction and disturbance of Russian naval capabilities in the Black Sea in 2023. This equipment has allowed Ukraine to liberate Russian-occupied territory in the east and south. This has seen a large reduction in Russa’s military capabilities.
Another avenue has been sanctions. When the Russian invasion began in February 2022, dozens of countries came together to impose stiff penalties to punish Russia for its behavior. The United States, United Kingdom, European Union, Canada, Japan, Australia, and several other countries have imposed sanctions targeting members of the Russian government, oligarchs, business leaders, and companies. Russia was suspended from various international organizations. Several countries suspended flights to and from Russia, they prevented Russian vessels from docking at their ports, and they suspended visas for prominent individuals. They also froze and seized Russian assets. As a result, Russia has lost billions of dollars due to these sanctions.
But loopholes still exist within these sanctions, allowing the Russian Federation to continue profiting during its unnecessary and unjust war. These loopholes have helped stimulate the Russian economy and finance Russia’s invasion.
For example, the energy sector remains very profitable. While several Western countries have stopped purchasing gas directly from Russia, the Russians are still profiting in this market. According to recent reports, the U.S., United Kingdom, and European Union continue to purchase oil that includes Russian crude from third parties. Various refineries in countries such as India combine oil with crude purchases from Russia. The product is mixed, refined into gasoline, and then sold abroad. The gas is then transported on vessels, delivered to Western countries, and used by consumers.
The Russians have earned hundreds of millions of dollars through such processes, and also through exports of liquid natural gas.
Russia has also profited through other means. Various pieces of Russian military hardware rely on U.S. advanced electronic components. While thousands of companies have suspended their business operations and have left Russia, others have done little to prevent the reselling of their products to Russia by third parties. These intermediaries purchase components and materials from Western countries, then re-export them to Russia. This allows the Russians to continue using various pieces of military equipment in Ukraine that include advanced electronics and technologies.
Finally, the Russian Federation continues to participate in international markets. While some major banks were removed from the SWIFT international financial messaging system, hundreds of other banks continue to make global transactions on a daily basis. This allows Russia to “conduct cross-border payments and transactions for imports and exports,” which further helps stimulate the Russian economy.
How, then, can sanctions be tightened to ensure that Russia faces the maximum penalties? First, the international community should explore further restrictions in the energy market. The Western powers should inquire with third-party gas vendors about how their product is refined, and suspend business operations with vendors whose product traces back to Russia in any part. Banning these imports would reduce Russian profits, meaning less revenue for Russia to purchase weapons for its war.
Second, the international community should promote transparency when conducting trade. This would reveal how Western advancements and technologies are making their way into Russian military hardware. Once these companies are identified, they should be held accountable for their actions. Western countries could even sanction these companies for continuing their business within Russia.
Third, the international community should expand its sanctions to include several other Russian banks. Punishing these financial institutions would restrict Russia’s ability to participate in the international market. It would make it more challenging for Russia to perform international transactions, and this would further affect the Russian economy.
Finally, the international community should work together to standardize and thus maximize its punishments on Russia. There are some cases where sanctions are inconsistent. For example, Gazprombank was sanctioned by the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Switzerland, and Australia but not by the EU. Similarly, senior leaders of the Wagner Group were sanctioned by the UK and EU, but not the U.S. or Canada. To ensure that Russia faces the stiffest of penalties because of its war, the international community should coordinate on sanctions lists to eliminate such inconsistencies.
Over the past two years, Russia’s economy lost hundreds of billions in business. The Russian economy contracted by 2.1 percent in 2022. But this has not forced Russia to end its war of aggression. As a result, the international community must ramp up its efforts to punish Russia.
To maximize the effects of these penalties, Western countries should close loopholes in current policies and coordinate sanctions lists. This would see further contractions within the Russian economy, weaken Russia’s financial institutions, and make it harder for Russia to finance its ongoing invasion.
The total effect of Russian sanctions remains to be seen, but the international community should still continue to try to pressure Russia. Corrections in Russian sanctions policy could be the additional pressure the world needs to force Russia to end its war.
Mark Temnycky is an accredited freelance journalist covering Eurasian affairs and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.
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