Virginia redistricting battle enters home stretch

Democrats’ push to redistrict in Virginia is entering the home stretch as the party seeks to solidify an advantage in four more House districts ahead of the November midterms.   

Heavyweight donors have poured millions of dollars into the April 21 contest, which asks Virginians to consider a constitutional amendment that would redraw the Old Dominion’s maps mid-decade and give the party the edge in all but one of 11 congressional districts.

The districts currently held by Republicans are outpacing blue districts in turnout, according to data from the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP), as polls show just a slim majority of voters support the push. But Democrats have a significant fundraising advantage and ‘yes’-vote organizers say a string of new early voting locations could give the effort an energy surge this weekend, fueling hopes that the party could get a boost in the battle for control of Congress.

“It’s going to be a close race,” said Virginia Democratic strategist Jared Leopold. “It is a unique special election where both Republicans and Democrats are pretty motivated.” 

Virginia offers Democrats what is likely their last chance to pass a set of new congressional lines ahead of the midterms, in which they need to net just three seats to flip Republican’s narrow majority in the lower chamber. 

Old Dominion voters are weighing in on whether to amend their state constitution to let the General Assembly “temporarily adopt new congressional districts,” circumventing a bipartisan independent redistricting commission “to restore fairness in the upcoming elections, while ensuring Virginia’s standard redistricting process resumes for all future redistricting after the 2030 census.”  

If approved by voters later this month, the proposed map could expand Democrats from a 6-5 majority in the state’s House delegation to a 10-1 advantage. If rejected, the current maps would stay in place until at least the 2030 Census.  

National Democrats have spent big in hopes of getting the plan across the finish line — and a group linked to tech billionaire and GOP donor Peter Thiel funneled funds into the opposition this week.

In another signal of the stakes for both sides of the aisle, the referendum has seen surprisingly strong turnout in early voting, despite the wonky scheduling of the April 21 vote — keeping pace with the early voting numbers in the state’s 2025 general election.

Turnout has appeared stronger in districts currently held by Republicans, which Karen Hult, a political science professor at Virginia Tech, said should make Democrats “quite concerned” about their prospects. 

But........

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