Republicans are feeling optimistic heading into Virginia and New Jersey’s 2025 off-year elections, after the party improved their margins in the states in the presidential election.

President-elect Trump lost the usual Democratic stronghold of New Jersey by about 6 points, dramatically narrowing the gap from 2020, when he lost it by about 16 points. And he improved by more than 4 points in the purple commonwealth in Virginia, which he also lost by about 6 points last week.

Both states are holding open gubernatorial races, while members of New Jersey’s General Assembly and Virginia’s House of Delegates are also up for election.

The off-year races might not have the same turnout, but they could provide an early indicator of what to expect in the 2026 midterms and how voters are reacting to the Republican trifecta in Washington.

“We will see where the environment is,” said Zack Roday, a Virginia-based Republican strategist who formerly worked with GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC.

“It always has an outside impact because it’s right after — the first electoral test post-presidential races and it has a bearing, no doubt,” he continued.

At the gubernatorial level, the races’ primaries vary in size. Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) and Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) are the favorites to face off in the general election in the commonwealth.

In New Jersey, on the other hand, both fields are getting crowded. On Monday,........

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