Democrats are increasingly optimistic about ousting Rep. Scott Perry (R) in Pennsylvania’s 10th congressional district as the general election reaches a fever pitch in the Keystone State.

The party’s strategists point to higher turnout during a presidential cycle, along with changing demographics in the district. The district’s Democratic candidate Janelle Stelson is also seen as a key asset, given her high name ID from covering the district as a former news anchor.

But ousting Perry, who has represented the district since 2019, will be an uphill climb, as the former Freedom Caucus Chair has a history of overcoming competitive races in cycles that have been difficult for Republicans nationally.

Democrats say the race is emblematic of the suburban shifts seen in the great Philadelphia and Pittsburgh areas.

“The blue swing of the suburbs isn’t just about the suburbs of Philadelphia,” said J.J. Balaban, a partner at Technicolor Political, the political media firm behind Stelson’s campaign ads.

“You’ve seen a similar phenomenon in other suburbs around the state. Part of the reason PA-10 has been growing more competitive is because of big shifts in the suburbs of Harrisburg and York,” he continued.

The shift was evident across Pennsylvania in 2022 when Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) and Sen. John Fetterman (D) were elected. Former President Trump won the district by four points in 2020 and Perry won it by just under eight points. But Democrats point to Shapiro’s 12-point win in the district. Fetterman lost it by a point to his Republican opponent Dr. Mehmet Oz.

While Shapiro was running against a weak candidate in state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R), Democrats argue that Shapiro’s ability to perform well in a Republican-dominated district is evidence of movement.

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