A winning margin of just a couple percentage points in the popular vote could translate into an Electoral College victory for Vice President Harris, a significant shift from the last two cycles where Democrats faced a significant disadvantage in the count.

The reason is shifts in the electorate that may allow Republicans to gain on Democrats when it comes to the popular vote, but that might not translate into more electoral votes for former President Trump and the GOP.

“Because of Republican gains in states like California, New York, Florida, it helps with the popular vote, and it even helps in the House, but it’s not efficient from an Electoral College standpoint,” said Zachary Donnini, a data scientist for Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ).

“You can win some states that you win by a big margin, and they don't help you anymore,” said Jason Roberts, a professor of political science at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. “Winning a state 80 to 20 doesn't help any more than winning at 55 to 45.”

Democrats have mostly been the victim of this effect. Since 2000, Democrats have won the popular vote in five of the last six presidential elections. But they've won the Electoral College in just three of those cycles.

In 2016, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes but fell short of victory. She ran up the score on Trump when it came to the popular vote in states such as California and New York, but that was little solace when she won just 232 electoral votes.

To win the Electoral College, a candidate must secure at least 270 electoral votes.

Sixteen years earlier, Vice President Al Gore........

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