Republicans are smelling blood in New Jersey’s gubernatorial race next year following an unexpectedly close result in the presidential election.

Vice President Harris only carried the Garden State by about 6 points over President-elect Trump, the closest Republicans have come to winning the state’s electoral votes in three decades. This came after another closer-than-expected result in the gubernatorial race three years ago, during which Gov. Phil Murphy (D) won by just more than 3 points.

Now with Murphy term-limited, Republicans are hoping 2025 presents them with a strong chance to flip the governor’s mansion.

“This is a prime opportunity for New Jersey Republicans to capitalize on President Trump’s strong performance in the state,” said New Jersey GOP strategist Alex Zdan. “We’ve got a really competitive field, but a competitive field can yield a great result.”

New Jersey has regularly been viewed as a solidly Democratic state in the modern political era, having last voted for a Republican presidential candidate in 1988 and last elected a Republican senator in the 1970s. But the state also has a bit of a maverick quality of electing Republicans to the governorship, and Republicans there saw some of the party’s largest improvements in November.

“In terms of the difference in the top-of-the-ticket performance from ‘20 to ‘24, New Jersey was one of the worst on the Democratic side,” said Democratic strategist Henry de Koninck, calling the swing “substantial.”

Part of the decline in Democratic votes across the state is turnout in northern counties near New York City. Hudson, Essex and Passaic counties have traditionally been Democratic strongholds where party chairs turn out hundreds of thousands of voters. The power of those county machines has declined over the last two election cycles

“The reasons for that is that the........

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