President Biden will host Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Philippines President Bongbong Marcos next week in a trilateral summit intended to further strengthen ties among the three allies. Biden will also meet separately with both leaders, with Kishida on April 10 and with Marcos the following day.

Both Asian countries have committed to increasing their defense spending. Manila plans to spend an addition $35 million over the next decade, while Japan has committed to expending nearly ten times as much — $300 billion — by 2027. Tokyo’s defense program will nearly double the 1 percent of GDP that it currently allocates to defense.

Few doubt that Japan will realize its ambitious defense buildup by 2027. On the other hand, it is not at all clear that the country can sustain its planned level of defense expenditure well beyond the end of this decade, due to a reduced tax base resulting from Japan’s population decline.

The drop in the country’s population is a product of both low birth rates and an aging cohort. Japan’s population, which stood at 123 million in 2022, shrank by nearly 1.3 million over the past two years. The number of babies born in the country fell for the eighth consecutive year in 2023, with no........

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