Politics is the one area of life where everyone speaks like they’re soothsayers. Most people get their declarations of the future wildly wrong, and there are almost no consequences for any of it.

But politics is not consequence-free, at least not in its results. Who wins matters, a lot. Often, the winner is a foregone conclusion. Incumbents are nearly impossible to defeat.

But 2024 is an exception; it’s a year when the winner of the big prize — the presidency — could be either candidate. It’s the rare election where how the leading candidates run will be more important than who they are.

This is the sixth time we’ve had a presidential campaign rematch — precedents include Jefferson vs. Adams (1796 and 1800), Adams vs. Jackson (1824 and 1828), Van Buren vs. Harrison (1836 and 1840), Cleveland vs. Harrison (1888 and 1892), McKinley vs. Bryan (1896 and 1900), and Eisenhower vs. Stevenson (1952 and 1956).

This is, however, the first time since 1892 that a “best of 3” will be decided, with an incumbent facing off against the incumbent he previously defeated. Moreover, it will be a race where both leading candidates are quite possibly the........

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