When the Colorado Supreme Court ejected Donald Trump from the state’s Republican primary ballot next year, it set off what will be the biggest political story in the first quarter of 2024.

Whether the former president engaged in insurrection and whether Section 3 of the 14th Amendment bars him from running for president is a complicated legal question. Win, lose or draw, how the Supreme Court decides that question is going to shape American politics in 2024 and beyond. So here is your handy guide to what the Supreme Court could do and how it could affect the 2024 presidential race.

3-1 odds: Reversal on due process grounds

The most likely outcome is that the Supreme Court will overturn the Colorado decision on the grounds that the procedure used to determine whether Trump is disqualified under Section 3 was constitutionally inadequate. But if the court holds that Colorado’s procedure was inadequate, it will then have to describe what procedures would be adequate — a roadmap, in other words, to correctly disqualify a candidate under Section 3. Expect a Supreme Court decision on due process grounds to be the opening gun for a flurry of lawsuits aimed at disqualifying Trump from the general election ballot.

5-1 odds: Affirm

If this were a less unique case, the odds on affirming would be much higher because the Supreme Court has limited scope for reviewing lower court decisions, especially state court decisions. It cannot, for example, throw the case out on the grounds that Colorado state law doesn’t allow for this kind of challenge to a........

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