12:30 REPORT

It’s Monday. My social media feeds are absolutely filled with Eras Tour footage as Taylor Swift kicks off the final leg of her tour in Miami! 🧣🪩Here’s what’s happening today:

• Trump has overtaken Harris for the first time in the Decision Desk HQ and The Hill election forecast(!)
• We compare this model to other major election forecasters. Bottom line: It’s a total toss-up.
• Trump worked as a fry cook at a McDonald's to mock Harris (but that location was closed to the public.)
• Biden is proposing a rule to force insurers to cover over-the-counter birth control.
• Oh — and Taco Bell is testing out Thai and Indian-inspired Crunchwrap Supremes. 😅

I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Send tips, commentary, feedback and cookie recipes to cmartel@thehill.com. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here. 

🚌 On The Campaign Trail

The tides are turning:

For the first time this cycle, former President Trump has overtaken Vice President Harris in the Decision Desk HQ/The Hill election forecast.

The new model: Trump has a 52 percent chance of winning the White House while Harris has a 48 percent chance.

How much has the model shifted?: Since late August, DDHQ and The Hill have estimated Harris’s chances of winning around 54 percent to 56 percent; Trump was hovering around a 44 percent to 46 percent chance of winning. On Oct. 17, the model estimated that they were tied.

How to explain the shift: Trump’s polling averages have improved in the key battleground states of Wisconsin and Michigan. Trump already had slight advantages in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. That means of the seven key states likely to determine the election outcome, Harris is now favored only in Pennsylvania.

How does this compare with other election forecasts and polling indexes?:

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