If the polls are right, Donald Trump will win the Iowa caucus next week and the New Hampshire primary a week after that — and then, barring some huge unforeseen event, he likely will go on to win the Republican presidential nomination.

Trump’s most loyal voters believe Joe Biden is a doddering old fool, that he’s the worst president ever, and that he — not Donald Trump — is the real threat to democracy. And even though they’ve made Trump the odds-on favorite to win the GOP nomination, there’s at least one other candidate with what looks like a much better chance of beating Biden.

So how much do Trump voters, especially the MAGA wing of the party, really want to win? That’s not as crazy a question as you might think. Stay with me.

It’s no secret that Biden would rather run against Trump than just about anyone else. It’s his best shot at winning. No one energizes the Democratic base more than Donald Trump. And even though Trump is beating Biden in more than a few polls, it’s not by much. A Wall Street Journal poll from December had Trump leading Biden by four points — while Nikki Haley beat Biden by a staggering 17 points. Ron DeSantis is tied with Biden in that poll.

Polls change, of course, and who knows what the next batch will turn up. But hang on before you take out a second mortgage on your house or raid your kids’ college fund to bet on Donald Trump winning next year.

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