Brazil’s elections are the acid test for Trump’s Latin America policy

President Trump’s new Monroe Doctrine has tipped the scales in recent elections in Colombia, Peru, Honduras, Costa Rica, Chile and other countries. But October will mark its true acid test, as Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, decides whether to opt for the right or hand a fourth victory to leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. 

Making the new Monroe Doctrine work its magic again will be difficult but not impossible. The leftist dictatorships in Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela have made the task somewhat easier, serving as an immediate reflection of what Lula’s allies have done to their respective countries. 

Although the relationship between the U.S. and Brazil is currently at a low point, in September 2025, President Trump sought to try a new approach and extended an olive branch to Lula. Following a brief meeting, he stated that there was good chemistry between the two. But that chemistry was short-lived. 

In early May, Lula visited Trump at the White House. It was a three-hour, closed-door meeting with no press present — an effort to avoid another “Zelensky effect” incident. Nevertheless, the results of the meeting would become apparent weeks later.

In late May, Secretary of State Marco Rubio dealt a heavy blow to the Brazilian leader: The Primeiro Comando da Capital and Comando Vermelho criminal groups were designated........

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