Whoever declared that in this world “nothing is certain except death and taxes” plainly led a sheltered life. Some authorities say Benjamin Franklin coined the phrase, but it was probably first voiced by the memorably named Toby Guzzle, a comedic character in Christopher Bullock’s 1716 English farce, The Cobbler of Preston.

With all due respect to Guzzle, war is a third inescapable, global certainty, as present-day citizens of Lebanon, Ukraine and Sudan know only too well. China’s expansionist regime is testing this proposition again in the choppy waters of the South China Sea. Maritime states from the Philippines to Japan struggle with Beijing’s aggression.

Conflict looks unavoidable. In truth, it has already begun. Western assessments of Asia-Pacific security flashpoints usually focus on China’s threats to seize Taiwan. North Korea’s nuclear arms and missiles are another key concern. South China Sea disputes are often overlooked – but are no less explosive.

Exactly why Xi Jinping, China’s president, appears intent on systematically, gratuitously provoking the neighbours and driving them into the arms of the US, his chief rival, is a puzzle. His actions demonstrate that mindless imperialist “gunboat diplomacy” did not end with Lord Palmerston et al.

Yet Xi’s reasons for attempting to colonise the South China Sea are not difficult to fathom. A vast basin ringed by China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Brunei, the Philippines and Taiwan, it harbours rich untapped oil, gas and mineral deposits and fisheries. A vital global export route, the sea also has prime strategic importance for China’s defence in its intensifying superpower standoff with........

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