Choices, choices. In life, there’s always a choice, or so that complacent saying goes. It didn’t really hold true for the people of Syria, bound and gagged by tyranny for half a century. Yet finally, after infinite pain, they chose freedom. Now the Middle East spotlight shifts to other victims of state oppression. Who’s next for revolution? Step forward, Iran.

A sudden collapse of the hardline theocratic regime in power since the Shah’s overthrow in 1979 is unlikely. True or false? Surprises happen, as all Syria knows. How Iran navigates the changing post-Assad landscape is fiercely debated in Tehran. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and senior mullahs face fateful decisions about the country’s path.

Let’s call it Ali’s choice: intensify internal repression, defy the west and rapidly acquire nuclear weapons to head off possible US-backed Israeli attacks and attempted regime change; or reverse course, embrace reform, rein in regional ambitions, make nice with the Americans – and, in doing so, reduce the chances of domestic insurrection.

This choice has existed, hypothetically, since Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s new-minted Islamic republic, committed to Israel’s destruction and sworn foe of the Great Satan, launched a covert nuclear programme in the 1980s. It has grown inescapably real this year, after Iran’s forward defence forces and allies were routed in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza.

Israel’s bellicose leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, has his tail up. Hoping to reshape the Middle East to his advantage, he has turned the region into a free-fire zone for Israeli forces. US president-elect Donald Trump has his back,........

© The Guardian