Merry Christmas, Sir Keir, and a happy new year. Or as they say in Downing Street these days, make merry for tomorrow you may die. At your drinks for lobby correspondents last week there was reportedly one topic alone. How long had you to go: months, weeks, hours?

We all know bad news sells. Political reporters cannot handle prime ministers sleeping soundly at night. But the terminal gloom around Keir Starmer’s position is absurd. Not a morning passes without rivals being declared, and not an evening without the BBC’s Chris Mason dragged from his supper to stand in the cold. He just frowns and forecasts Armageddon.

Starmer is variously described as the least popular, most rebelled against, most loathed prime minister of all time. Asked for a prediction, the Westminster lobby grasps the most stinging nettle it can find. It currently rates Starmer as finished. It did the same to Margaret Thatcher after two years in 1981.

First the polls. A recent in-depth study of them in the Economist was gripping. It showed that when a party’s share falls below 30%, predicting the outcome of first-past-the-post in any constituency is near worthless. In lobby terms, you can use it to back any story you want to write. At last year’s general election, the surging Reform........

© The Guardian