You don’t have to be in Gorton and Denton for long to know that next week’s byelection really matters. If Labour wins in what has been an over-50% solid red-voting area since the second world war, that will calm nerves on its febrile back (and front) benches. If Labour loses, heavy blame will fall on Keir Starmer for fixing the party’s ruling NEC to bar Andy Burnham’s selection, ensuring he couldn’t challenge for the leadership without a Westminster seat.

Few doubt the popular Greater Manchester mayor would have won next week in Gorton and Denton on his home patch. Blocking him is widely seen as grubby Westminster politicking that has weakened, not strengthened, Starmer’s grip on the leadership. For many erstwhile supporters that jiggery-pokery was a turning point, as Starmer seemed willing to risk Reform UK scoring another win in order to stop Burnham, though “stop Farage” has to be Labour’s overwhelming priority.

The field is a three-way split between Labour, Reform and the Greens, and each can make a good case as to why they will win. There is plainly a strong anti-Reform majority in an area that has been Labour for more than 80 years, but how is anyone to know which is the best anti-Reform vote to cast?

Greens and........

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