As Donald Trump romps to the Republican nomination for the next presidential race, there is justified anxiety among the US’s European allies about his return to the White House. It is all but certain that 2024 will see a rerun of Joe Biden v Trump. Europe needs to prepare for the possibility of a second Trump presidency.

The last one was traumatic for Europe. This was not really for policy reasons. There were policy divisions such as Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. But transatlantic policy tensions are hardly new: there have been times – the US-led war in Iraq in 2003 for example – when the rift was deeper.

Europe’s trauma had more to do with politics: Trump was the first American president not to treat Europe as family. He visibly felt more comfortable with authoritarians such as Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin than with Europe’s democratically elected leaders.

Trump’s antipathy towards Europe has not changed. Second time around, these bad political vibes would probably translate into much greater policy chasms. Whereas his first term was internally erratic and largely ineffective, with frequent resignations and oscillations, a second could be more coherent and determined. Rather than diverse strands of the Republican party together in an unwieldy coalition, Trump 2.0 would be 100% Maga (Make America Great Again). He would not limit himself to unpleasant tweets.

Add to this, an international context that is far more challenging. Europe is deeply shaken by two wars, one of them on the continent itself. Neither Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nor war in the Middle East have any end in sight. In........

© The Guardian