Where the lettuce led, could Labour follow? Could the party of Keir Starmer repeat the success of a household vegetable and defeat Liz Truss in her own constituency?

The very question would once have sounded laughable. Truss won South West Norfolk in 2019 with nearly 70% of the vote and a majority of more than 26,000. Yet in its latest analysis, Ipsos has the seat down as a “toss-up”. Were the former, if brief, prime minister to be toppled on 4 July, it would be the mother of all Portillo moments; she would for ever be the incarnation of an epic Conservative defeat. That such a scenario is even conceivable tells us a lot about the current state of our politics – and what could be coming next.

The threat to Truss is simple enough and it’s the same one endangering scores of Tories in previously safe seats across the country: the right-of-centre vote is split, torn between Conservative and Reform, which might just allow Labour – who came third behind the Tories and Ukip in South West Norfolk in 2015 – to inch over the line. We’ll come to the wider phenomenon, but in this case there’s another element at work: the Truss factor.

“I’m not voting Conservative, because it’s her,” was how Carrie Batty put it, as she and her husband, Chris, soaked up some long-awaited summer sun on a park bench in the centre of Swaffham earlier this week. “Because of the chaos she’s caused our children with her wonderful budget.” The sarcasm was acid, as Batty, who’s 62 and retired, told me of the mortgage payments her two children were struggling to meet. She’d always voted Tory, “but not now, because I don’t want Liz Truss as an MP. She’s never apologised. She’s never taken responsibility for anything.”

Others confessed astonishment that Truss is even allowed to stand as........

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