Prime Minister Mark Carney delivers remarks at the Liberal caucus holiday party on Dec. 11, after MP Michael Ma crossed the floor from the Conservative caucus.Justin Tang/The Canadian Press

A big gap and the lack of a gap together define the state of today’s federal politics. The gap in question is the wide lead that Prime Minister Mark Carney has over Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre on leadership. By contrast, there is a statistical tie between the federal Liberal and Conservative parties in nationwide popular support.

Mr. Carney runs well ahead of his Conservative rival on the question of preferred prime minister: 50.1 per cent opt for him, with just 27.6 per cent picking Mr. Poilievre, according to a Dec. 5 Nanos poll.

But that gap vanishes on the question of party support: 39.1 per cent of respondents support the Liberals, while 37.8 support the Conservatives – a statistical tie. Other opinion polls show that same pattern: a consistently........

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