Debates surrounding the 28th Constitutional Amendment have raised several fundamental questions on Pakistan’s political and constitutional horizon. On the surface, the discussion revolves around the creation of new provinces, administrative reforms, and the restructuring of the system of governance. Yet its potential implications are far broader. Reports concerning an increase in federal authority over mineral resources, a review of the federal share in the National Finance Commission (NFC), the distribution of water, and changes in the provincial status of key coastal cities such as Karachi and Gwadar have transformed this debate into a fresh contest over powers between the federation and the provinces. If even some of these proposals become part of a formal constitutional package, the matter will no longer remain one of mere administrative improvement; it will also bring into question the federal balance established after the 18th Amendment.

The first question that must be understood is whether the federal government led by the Pakistan Muslim League-N can secure the required two-thirds majority in both houses of Parliament for a constitutional amendment without the support of the Pakistan People’s Party. The total membership of the National Assembly is 336, so 224 votes are needed for a two-thirds majority. The ruling coalition’s combined strength stands at approximately 235 members. After separating the People’s Party’s 74 members, the government is left with roughly 161 votes and would need a further 63 votes to reach the required threshold. In the Senate as well, additional support would be necessary to achieve the required majority without the People’s Party’s backing.

To fill this numerical gap, possibilities under discussion include securing the support of opposition members, bringing independent members on board, or capitalising on internal differences within a party. Talk of the formation of a forward bloc in the PTI or of obtaining support in exchange for political relief in Imran Khan’s cases is also circulating. The real question is whether simply gathering the required votes will be sufficient for such a fundamental constitutional change, or whether the government will also have to build broader consensus to provide political justification for these changes. Parliament has the authority to amend the Constitution, but the far-reaching consequences of exercising that authority will also depend on how the balance of rights and powers of the federation’s units is handled.

In the background of this debate, the 18th Constitutional Amendment holds fundamental importance. Passed in 2010, it played a significant role in transferring powers to the provinces and strengthening provincial autonomy within the federal structure. Thereafter, the responsibilities and powers of provincial governments became prominent in health, education, social welfare and numerous other sectors. Over time, however, questions also continued to arise concerning federal government expenditures, debt servicing, defence requirements, provincial financial shares, and the devolution of powers to local governments. Discussion of federal financial difficulties and the need for better governance is legitimate in its own place, yet while seeking a solution it will be necessary to ensure that the constitutional foundation of provincial autonomy itself is not being altered in the name of reforms.

A May 2026 report in the daily Dawn mentioned the possibility of reviewing minerals, the provinces’ share in the NFC, and certain arrangements of the 18th Amendment. The same report noted that the full details of the proposed changes had not been formally placed before political allies. Another report in August 2026 referred to various possibilities regarding the creation of new provinces or administrative units and the proposal to bring Karachi and Gwadar under federal administrative control. These reports illustrate the political significance of the debate. It is incumbent upon the government to clarify which changes are actually under consideration, what their legal scope will be, and what outcomes may result from them.

The most sensitive aspect of this entire matter is authority over natural, mineral and financial resources. Mineral projects such as Reko Diq and Saindak in Balochistan, hydropower and mineral reserves in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and the gas and coal resources of Sindh are closely linked to the economies, employment and sense of political deprivation of these provinces. Disagreements over the income derived from these resources, the share of local populations, environmental impacts and the distribution of developmental benefits have already been affecting federal relations. If the proposed changes result in an expansion of federal authority over the ownership, management or distribution of income from resources, then constitutional grounding, provincial representation and clarity regarding the interests of local populations will be essential.

Here, Article 172(3) of the Constitution holds........

© The Friday Times