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Canada Has No Real Alternative To Taking Trump’s Trade Deal, But It’s Sabotaging Itself To Pretend Otherwise

The United States remains Canada’s gravitational center, whether they like it or not.

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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is in Strasbourg this week selling a “unique alliance” with the European Union while courting Chinese capital at home. The pitch is straightforward: President Trump’s tariffs and “51st state” taunts make Canada’s century-old economic marriage to the United States too risky. Thus, Canada should diversify toward Brussels and Beijing.

One massive problem: geography, capital flows, language, and supply chains dictate otherwise. These harsh facts on the ground make the European Union option, in particular, a political fantasy.

Canada cannot join the European Union. The EU treaties limit membership to a “European state.” Associate membership — the novel status European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen floated with Carney in the room — does not exist in European Union law. Creating it, or concluding a deep association agreement, requires unanimity in the Council and, in practice, mixed-agreement ratification by all 27 member states. That is the same hurdle that has left the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with Canada, provisionally applied since 2017, still unratified by ten countries, including France. Any new “alliance for the future” covering defense industry, critical minerals, artificial intelligence and the Arctic will face the same veto. Calling Carney’s EU opening a fool’s errand is an understatement.

On the other hand, Canadian exports to China jumped 30 percent in the first half of 2026, driven by energy and minerals. Carney’s January deal traded........

© The Federalist