Forecasting the future is hard. But almost every forecast regardless of the topic involves a bumpy ride ahead for Aussie workers.

Our transition towards net zero emissions and the materialisation of climate risks will create new jobs for some and destroy jobs for others.

Technological change will do the same. Advances in technology have historically replaced low-skilled jobs. AI promises to do the opposite: impacting higher skill jobs held by those who had to go to university.

Throw in some trade wars, some geopolitical disputes, lots of industry policy, manufacturing subsidies and trade protections, and the outlook for workers looks turbulent.

So, what do we do about it?

If we are going to support workers, the first step is to understand how these shocks impact labour markets. We need to know who they impact, how they impact them, and why.

Let's start with the climate transition. The climate transition is a big shock in its own right, but it also has a bunch of lessons for how to manage other shocks, too.

We ran a simulation at Mandala where coal mining shut down seven years ago and used micro-datasets to measure how long it would take all those workers to find new jobs.

We collected data on all the workers at a New England coal mine - including how many there are, what their occupations are and what skills they have - and then collected data on almost every single job advertisement that came........

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