Over the past decade, China’s increased presence in North Africa has been commonly framed as either European decline and loss of influence, or the rise of China and its aggressive expansionist policies. These arguments, often different sides of the same coin of realpolitik, neglect a simpler explanation, namely that China’s growing presence is not the result of an offensive strategy of displacement, but of a partnership gap created by Europe’s preference for flexibility, reversibility, and political distance in areas such as migration management and energy security.

While European policy has prioritized short-term risk management and insulation from political responsibility, China’s engagement has emphasized long-term, asset-based investments in infrastructure, energy, and logistics.

Europe has sought a foreign policy based on plausible deniability. This approach has not reduced Europe’s presence in the North African region, but it has reshaped how responsibility is managed.

The externalization of migration control illustrates this logic most clearly. As migration became a defining issue in European politics, particularly amid the rise of far-right parties, delivering immediate reductions in arrivals took precedence over structural solutions. Cooperation with North African partners focused on interception and containment beyond EU borders, allowing European governments to claim operational success while distancing themselves from implementation and its consequences. Support for the Libyan Coast Guard exemplified this model: departures fell, but responsibility for enforcement, and for any act that could affect European public sensibilities, was delegated outward.

A similar pattern emerged in Europe’s energy policy after Russia invaded Ukraine. Algeria’s role as a gas supplier gained urgency, prompting intensified engagement driven by short-term supply needs rather than a broader strategic framework. Once again, Europe prioritized insulation from risk over long-term political investment, retaining the option to disengage as circumstances changed.

Together, migration and energy reveal a consistent strategy. Europe has sought to........

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