The race for the U.S. Senate seat among Reps. Barbara Lee, Adam Schiff and Katie Porter is turning into a catfight.
This was the week that the U.S. Senate candidates Went There.
The Senate race in California finally lit up last week, and given that ballots go out next week, it’s not a moment too soon.
For months, the race has been gripped by torpor. There has been precious little actual political exchange, just a studied disengagement, a careful exercise in avoiding headlines, conflict or any real way to differentiate among Democratic Reps. Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee. As for nonpolitician Steve Garvey, his disengagement was put on glaring display during the debate at USC a week ago.
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Rep. Schiff, a man of chronically cool temperament, dropped a commercial that framed the race between himself and Garvey, his wish-upon-a-faded-star-dream opponent because that match-up would allow Schiff to chill in Burbank and sit on the beach until the Nov. 5 general election.
Rep. Porter was having none of that, saying, “Adam Schiff knows he will lose to me in November. That’s what this brazenly cynical ad is about — furthering his own political career, boxing out qualified Democratic women candidates and boosting a Republican candidate to do it. We need honest leadership, not political games.”
Let’s review. Porter called Schiff brazen, cynical, sexist, dishonest and a gamesman.
That’ll fit on a whiteboard.
Another thing that might not fit so easily on a whiteboard is that Porter did virtually the same thing in her 2018 race with GOP incumbent Rep. Mimi Walters, where she ignored her Democratic opponents and conveniently framed her race in virtually the same way Schiff did to her. Brazenness, anyone?
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Gov. Gavin Newsom applied the same technique in his 2018 race, where he ignored former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and teed up the hapless, babbling GOP candidate John Cox, a man who had run in Illinois for offices ranging from the Cook County Recorder of Deeds to president of the United States, as his true opponent.
Newsom did it again in 2022. Why? Because it works.
Schiff spox Marisol Samayoa, who framed her response to Porter in impeccable spoxspeak, said, “No one in this race has fought harder than Adam when it comes to protecting our democracy, our economy and our planet. Steve Garvey will be a rubber stamp for Donald Trump’s extreme agenda if elected. California voters deserve to know the differences between the two top-polling candidates.”
Indeed, except it’s not exactly clear who the No. 2 candidate is, precisely. Polling in this race has mostly been semi-meaningless for months. Some polls show Porter there, some show Garvey. Lee has consistently trailed, mired in third place or even fourth.
A new survey from the California Elections and Policy Poll shows Schiff holding steady at 25%, Porter and Garvey deadlocked at 15% and Lee at 7%, which is not where she needs to be now. If Lee doesn’t want to see Schiff be the nominee, she might want to reconsider her participation in this race prior to the March 5 Super Tuesday election.
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Undecideds? They’re a whopping 29%, according to the California Elections and Policy Poll. Most polls have shown vast tracts of undecided voters, ranging from 21% to even 40%.
Apparently, not every California voter watches MSNBC all day.
The California Elections and Policy Poll survey also deviated from the mean with a fascinating inquiry: Which candidate does best among Dodgers fans? I’d like to commend the data nerd for coming up with that pertinent question. The answer?
Bad news for the former first baseman for the Los Angeles Dodgers: Schiff clocked in at 29%, Garvey got 16% and Porter slid into home at 15%. Yer out.
And, yeah, now do the Giants fan question.
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As this largely disengaged electorate rounds the bases (please stop the painful baseball metaphors, OK?), the most intriguing question becomes this: Who’s your second choice if it looks like it ain’t gonna happen for your top candidate?
Intriguingly, Garvey’s voters name Schiff as their second choice, at a paltry 12%, but still, that’s the number. Porter voters name Schiff as their second choice at 66%. Schiff voters name Porter as their second choice at 53%.
Herein lies the Democratic conundrum. This is my anecdotal guy-at-end-on-the-barstool view: Most Democrats seem to genuinely like Schiff, Porter and Lee, and feel paralyzed having to choose among them. Any sort of serious differentiation among them is going to come down to several factors.
The first is generational. At 77, Lee is not getting young vote. Schiff, a spry triathlete at 63, still doesn’t make the cut on that one, either. Porter, a comparatively youthful 50, does.
Incumbent Sen. Laphonza Butler, a 44-year-old Black LGBTQI woman with a strong record of liberal activism, might have done a little better in this race than she might have believed.
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While Porter has opaquely raised the age issue, it’s still not front and center. But it’s obvious. Most of the polling suggests that Schiff leads with voters over 50, and Porter leads with voters under 50.
The second wild card in this race is the Wow Factor, and that’s a crosstab in a poll that is so intangible that pollsters can’t even bring themselves to formulate the question. Schiff would be a solid, diligent U.S. senator, as he has been solid and diligent throughout his career.
But he’s not the Next Thing, and it’s not his fault. Fairly or not, Porter is.
Jack Ohman is a Pulitzer Prize-winning cartoonist and columnist.
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