It's unacceptably trite to say that we knew something like this would happen. But on some level, how could we not? Despite the expressions of sympathy and support from both Donald Trump's allies and his most committed political opponents, and the ritual pronouncements that political violence is unacceptable, no one in America can truly be surprised by each new outbreak of mayhem and bloodshed, whether it occurs on the streets of a large city, inside a rural church or a suburban big-box retail store, or at a presidential campaign rally in post-industrial western Pennsylvania.

It appears that Trump was not seriously injured in a probable assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania, on Saturday evening. He posted on Truth Social that he "was shot with a bullet that pierced the upper part of my right ear." Two other people have died in this incident, according to local officials. One of them was the presumed shooter, reportedly killed by the Secret Service, and the other was a person not yet identified at the time of writing, very likely a rally attendee who was shot accidentally. Two additional spectators were injured, according to the Secret Service.

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In other words, what happened in Butler was bad enough, and it could have been much worse. What is about to happen will very likely be even more damaging, as we move from fragmentary news reporting into the realm of speculation, name-calling, finger-pointing, conspiracy theory and half-baked political forecasting. Any pause in the 2024 presidential campaign following this incident will be........

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