Immigration

Ilya Somin | 11.1.2024 2:22 PM

I spent this week in Switzerland, where I gave two talks on immigration policy: one at Avenir Suisse, a classical liberal/libertarian-leaning think tank, and one at NZZ Real Estate Days (annual convention of the Swiss real estate industry). The experience engendered some reflections, which I cover in this post. But it's important to note some caveats right off the bat: I am not an expert on Swiss politics and society, though I do have some knowledge by virtue of being a federalism and immigration scholar (Switzerland is an important case study for both fields). I only speak one of Switzerland's two main languages (French; the other is German, and German-speaking Swiss outnumber the French-speakers). As described below, my knowledge of French was of little use on this trip. In addition, I should stress that I did not speak to a statistically representative sample of Swiss people. Among other things, because of the nature of the two events, those I met were overwhelmingly highly educated and relatively affluent.

These reflections won't resolve either Swiss or US debates about immigration. But I hope they might be of some small interest, nonetheless.

J.D. Vance recently said that if immigration was the path to prosperity, then "America would be the most prosperous country in the world." Well, we very nearly are! Depending on which data set you look, at the US ranks somewhere between 6th and 10th in per capita GDP. Ahead of us are various small oil-rich states (e.g. the UAE, Qatar, and Norway), Luxembourg (tiny city state that specializes in banking), Ireland …. and Switzerland! Thus, Vance can still argue that if immigration were economically beneficial, we would be ahead of Switzerland, not behind it. But here's the problem: Switzerland actually has way more immigration relative to population than we do. Over 30% of the Swiss population is foreign-born, compared to about 14% for the US. Ireland also has a higher per capita GDP than the US in most rankings. Their percentage of immigrants in the population is almost 20%, lower than Switzerland, but considerably higher than the US.

Correlation doesn't prove causation. Switzerland and the US could be........

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