European leaders are increasingly concerned by the stalemated war in Ukraine, and with allies’ struggles in keeping ahead of new Russian arms production.

A year that began with promises of a huge Ukrainian counteroffensive to match last year’s surprise push through hundreds of miles of Russian-occupied territory devolved into a bloody, yard-by-yard fight across hundreds of miles of front, that saw little territorial gain despite a massive human cost.

“Russia has the capability and the ability to go on with this war for years,” Finnish Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen said during a visit to Washington this week where he signed a new defense agreement with the U.S. “Many are overestimating that the West is winning this, that Ukraine is winning.”

This month, Häkkänen’s government announced it is doubling its production of ammunition, committing to send much of it to Ukraine as it struggles with thinning supplies from Western allies and the slow buildup of production capabilities in the U.S. and Europe. He declined to disclose how large the new output will be, or identify the exact munitions that will be involved.

With about $25 million in seed money from the government along with multiyear contracts to guarantee that the work continues in the coming years, the project is also being funded by new investments from NAMMO, the Norwegian defense firm with a large presence in Finland. The production........

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