2024 is set to put democracy through its most sweeping test yet.

Dubbed the biggest election year in history, more than 60 countries representing half the world population — some 4 billion people — will hold regional, legislative and presidential elections that look set to shake up political institutions and ramp up geopolitical tensions.

As the United States looks inward, bracing for a likely showdown between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, other countries are also preparing for possible incumbent oustings, raucous public protests and populist movements with the potential to destabilize larger regions.

"We will know whether democracy lives or dies by the end of 2024," said Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Ressa, founder of the investigative news site Rappler in the Philippines and author of "How to Stand Up to a Dictator."

In Europe, establishment parties are bracing for a potential surge from the far right within the European Parliament, including Euroskeptic groups that aim to undermine the EU institutions meant to maintain peace across the continent’s 27-member bloc.

In Asia, Taiwan’s election could escalate tensions in the Indo-Pacific, threatening to drag in Washington and other allies as Taipei and Beijing increasingly butt heads over the disputed island. And in Africa, elections in Senegal, South Africa, Mali and Chad could shape the trajectory of multilateral institutions across the continent.

In North America, the U.S. isn’t alone in facing aclosely watched presidential race: Mexico is holding a vote that could impact cooperation on critical trade and fraught border security issues with its northern neighbor.

Tony Banbury, president of the International Foundation for Electoral Systems think tank, which tracks global votes, said while ”authoritarians are deploying a sophisticated playbook to gain and hold on to power,” he also sees “democratic forces are fighting back.”

The bumper crop of elections also raises questions about new technologies and misinformation online, putting a strain on cybersecurity and social media efforts to mitigate risks of manipulation.

“2024 will be an election year unlike any other and this will bring unprecedented challenges to online platforms who will be working to protect the integrity of elections online,” said Katie Harbath, who has advised Republican campaigns on digital strategy and previously worked as director of public policy at Facebook. “Not only will they have a lot of countries to cover — all with different languages, cultures and regulations — but new tools such as AI that they need to write new rules for.”

U.S. headlines will be dominated by the domestic showdown. Here's a look at other key elections to watch around the world.

Washington’s Asian ally: Taiwan

Taiwanese voters will head to the polls in 2024’s first major election to choose a new president on Jan. 13 amid deepening fears that China might invade the island, which Biden has repeatedly said Washington would help fend off.

The frontrunner is Lai Ching-te, the current vice president from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party. Lai chose Taiwanese envoy to the U.S. Hsiao Bi-khim — also a close confidant of incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen — as his running mate. This sends a signal to Washington that with Hsiao at his side, Lai will continue Tsai’s measured policy toward Beijing and be mindful of U.S. concerns.

Lai will face Hou Yu-ih, the standard-bearer for the Kuomintang party, which ruled Taiwan from the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949 through 2000. The Kuomintang is more friendly to Beijing and explicitly advocates for “reunification” as a key plank of its party platform. Hou and his running mate, Jaw Shaw-kong, are warning that electing Lai and Hsiao would result in a war between China and Taiwan, which Beijing considers part of its territory despite the fact the Chinese Communist Party has never ruled the island.

Also running is centrist Ko Wen-je. Billionaire CEO of major tech supplier Foxconn, Terry Gou, ran as an independent, but dropped out of the race in November.

Beijing despises Lai and Hsiao and has placed them and their families on (unenforceable) sanction lists for their pro-independence sympathies. China’s optimal election result is a Kuomingtang victory that would open the door to renewing and........

© Politico